Using Weather and Climate Data to Improve Demand Forecasting

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Dec 6, 2016 3:00:00 PM

Editor's Note: This is the second in a three part series on advanced demand analytics to improve demand forecasting. Part One of the series, New Product Introduction (NPI), can be found here.

Demand forecasting software can usually factor in climate and seasonality, like more ice cream being sold during summer months or in warmer climates. But weather data adds a more granular time-sensitive signal.

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Topics: Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Demand Forecasting for New Product Introductions

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Nov 29, 2016 4:45:00 PM

Editor's Note: This is the first in a short series on advanced demand analytics forecasting techniques. Next week's blog topic will be on "Using Weather Data to Improve Demand Forecasting".

Short and hard-to-predict product life cycles make it important that firms master New Product Introduction (NPI) demand planning. A good New Product Introduction plan should account for:

  1. Sales volume over the long term at normal operating capacity, otherwise known as the baseline demand

  2. The demand profile during the initial launch period.
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Topics: Forecasting Demand and Analytics

What’s Your Forecast Accuracy Target for 2017?

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Nov 15, 2016 6:17:54 PM

Editor's Note: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there will be no blog post next week.

In 2016, it seemed as if everyone in supply chain was looking to improve their forecasting performance. Companies sought to implement (or re-implement) planning technology solutions, tune and optimize methodologies towards tighter variances, and integrate more accurate information into their planning processes. Unsurprisingly, the highest percentage of respondents in a recent Gartner/Supply Chain Digest survey selected forecast accuracy and demand variability as the top barriers preventing them from reaching their broader supply chain goals.

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Topics: Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting – Part 2

Posted by Joe Shamir on Nov 8, 2016 2:03:00 PM

Last week we said that in reality most companies are already partly down the path towards a probabilistic supply chain model.

The evolution is happening naturally as the global business landscape becomes more interconnected and complex, along with the effects of multichannel marketing, demand shaping and the internet.  You’ve likely already recognized the limits of deterministic planning if your company has recently launched (or relaunched) an S&OP initiative, or you’ve started to migrate from traditional platforms like SAP APO to advanced demand analytics tools, or trained your planners on supply chain performance trade-off competencies.

Here is one straightforward opportunity to focus on in the near future: Migrate away from top-down demand forecasting.

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Topics: Forecasting Demand and Analytics, Supply Chain Planning

Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty in Demand Forecasting

Posted by Joe Shamir on Nov 1, 2016 4:55:00 PM

 It's human nature to look for certainty. We believe that if we can predict the future with perfect certainty, then we will react and prepare accordingly. As such, we tend to put all our planning effort into making better predictions. The problem is that after we invest considerable effort predicting one aspect of a future event, lots of uncertainty remains.

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Topics: Forecasting Demand and Analytics, Supply Chain Planning

Intermittent Demand is Not Unforecastable Demand

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Oct 25, 2016 3:00:00 PM

Has this happened to you? Your forecasting or demand planning system says an SKU is “unforecastable” because demand is too small and intermittent. If it happens infrequently, it might not be a problem. But if it’s happening regularly, it can disrupt your supply chain planning.

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Topics: Forecasting Demand and Analytics

Sales & Operations Execution (S&OE) vs. S&OP

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Oct 18, 2016 3:03:00 PM

S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) and SI&OP (Sales, Inventory & Operations Planning) are two well know acronyms. Now Gartner has added an acronym with a distinctly different twist, Sales and Operations Execution (S&OE).

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Topics: Supply and Operations Planning (S&OP)

Another Way to Think About Supply Chain Risk Management

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Oct 11, 2016 4:30:00 PM

In a previous blog we described a new concept introduced by Gartner Research about the need for both macro-agility and micro-agility. Now we apply this same macro-agility and micro-agility concept to risk management.

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Topics: Forecasting Demand and Analytics, Supply Chain Planning

Has Driverless Supply Chain Planning Already Arrived?

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Oct 4, 2016 4:02:00 PM

There has been a lot of news about driverless cars, and at the Supply Chain Insights Global Summit there was also some news about “driverless” supply chain planning when two companies described supply chain planning with almost no human intervention.

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Topics: Supply Chain Planning

Supply Chain Complexity and the Need for Disruptive Technology

Posted by Jeff Bodenstab on Sep 28, 2016 6:00:00 PM

 

The keynote address at the always enlightening Supply Chain Insights Global Summit was given by Lora Cecere, and she used it to focus on the problem of growing supply chain planning complexity and how to fix it.

“The processes we have designed over the last three decades do not allow us to embrace complexity,” said Cecere. “They do not allow us to really drive global interactions to the degree we need for localized assortment. They don’t allow us to really get the data.”

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Topics: Supply Chain Planning

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